What type of data do our brains need to evaluate one of the most important aspects of business planning, ie The Forecast?
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As leaders and managers of human beings with million year-old brain structures, as part of our managerial toolkit we need to keep ourselves knowledgeable about psychology and the cognitive science of how people make decisions. You have undoubtedly read about how innately bad we are at making certain types of decisions, especially those involving risk, probabilities and shifting time horizons.
Part of the reason for this difficulty is the structure and function of our three-layered brain. The complexity and size of the neocortex, especially the pre-frontal cortex, is a very recent evolutionary development. Prior to this development, our mammalian ancestors still made decisions, but they did so relying heavily on the more intuitive, emotional limbic layer. It would be fairly accurate to say that our emotions are simply a different way to make a decision. It’s quick, can still be trained by experience and learning, and can be wired directly into rapid motor responses that most likely saved our ancestors lives countless times, who faced more binary decisions than probabilistic ones. Gut-feel is really “brain-feel”.
